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      Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates on the Development of Malaria Parasite ( Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region

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          Abstract

          The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for malaria transmission, viz. the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them. Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of the sufficient importation of cases from abroad.

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          Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

          Cyril Caminade, Sari Kovats, Joacim Rocklöv … (2014)
          Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
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            Climate change and the global malaria recession

            Peter W. Gething, David Smith, Anand P Patil … (2010)
            The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest1,2. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease3-5, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates3, substantively influence global health policy6,7. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range8, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control9. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since c. 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity hypothesised under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since c. 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen dramatic global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.
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              Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios

              M. van Lieshout, R.S. Kovats, M.T.J. Livermore … (2004)
              Article 0 comments Cited 76 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Int J Environ Res Public Health
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Int J Environ Res Public Health
                Journal ID (publisher-id): ijerph
                Title: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
                Publisher: MDPI
                ISSN (Print): 1661-7827
                ISSN (Electronic): 1660-4601
                Publication date (Electronic): 26 February 2019
                Publication date (Print): March 2019
                Volume: 16
                Issue: 5
                Electronic Location Identifier: 694
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia; mironova.va@ 123456gmail.com (V.M.); mvar91@ 123456gmail.com (M.V.); m.gri@ 123456geogr.msu.ru (M.G.)
                [2 ]WHO Consultant on malaria, Former WHO Advisor on malaria, WHO EMRO, Cairo 11371, Egypt; beljaev.moscow@ 123456gmail.com
                [3 ]A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, 3 Pyzhyovskiy Pereulok, Moscow 119017, Russia
                [4 ]Research Computing Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence: shartova@ 123456yandex.ru ; Tel.: +7-(495)-939-2140
                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9095-5334
                Article
                Publisher ID: ijerph-16-00694
                DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16050694
                PMC ID: 6427774
                PubMed ID: 30813647
                SO-VID: cc92714e-2f8a-4d90-9ac8-ede56d305ed2
                Copyright © © 2019 by the authors.
                License:

                Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

                History
                Date received : 28 January 2019
                Date accepted : 23 February 2019
                Categories
                Subject: Article

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health
                Keywords: vivax malaria,urban heat island,climate change,malaria season,plasmodium vivax,russia,moscow
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health
                Keywords: vivax malaria, urban heat island, climate change, malaria season, plasmodium vivax, russia, moscow

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