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      Real-Time Underreamer Vibration Predicting, Monitoring, and Decision-Making Using Hybrid Modeling and a Process Digital Twin

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          Summary

          In hole enlargement while drilling (HEWD) operations, underreamers are used extensively to enlarge the pilot hole. Reamer wipeout failure can cause additional bottomhole assembly (BHA) trips, which can cost operators millions of dollars. Excessive reamer shock and vibration are leading causes of reamer wipeout; therefore, careful monitoring of reamer vibration is important in mitigating such a risk. Currently, downhole vibration sensors and drilling dynamics simulations (DDSs) are used to comprehend and reduce downhole vibration, but vibration sensors cannot be placed exactly at the reamer to monitor the vibrations in real time. DDSs are difficult to calibrate and are computationally expensive for use in real time; therefore, the real-time reamer vibration status is typically unknown during drilling operations. A process digital twin using a hybrid modeling approach is proposed and tested to address the vibration issue. Large amounts of field data are used in advanced DDSs to calibrate the HEWD runs. For each HEWD section, calibrated DDSs are performed to comprehend the downhole vibration at the reamer and downhole vibration sensors. A surrogate regression model between reamer vibration and sensor vibration is built using machine learning. This surrogate model is implemented in a drilling monitoring software platform as a process digital twin. During drilling, the surrogate model uses downhole measurement while drilling (MWD) data as inputs to predict reamer vibration. Wipeout risk levels are calculated and sent to the operators for real-time decision-making to reduce the possibility of reamer wipeout. Large volumes of reamer field data, including field recorded vibration and reamer dull conditions were used to validate the digital twin workflow. Then, the process digital twin was implemented and tested in two reamer runs in the Gulf of Mexico. A downhole high-frequency sensor was placed 8 ft above the reamer cutting structure in one field run, and the recorded sensor vibration data and corresponding reamer dull conditions showed a very good match with the real-time digital twin predictions in a low-vibration scenario. Cases in high vibration are needed to fully validate the feasibility and accuracy of the digital twin. State-of-the-art downhole sensors, DDS packages, large amounts of field data, and a hybrid approach are the solutions to building, calibrating, and field testing the reamer digital twin to ensure its effectiveness and accuracy. Such a hybrid modeling approach can not only be applied to reamers but also to other critical BHA components.

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          Using the Student's t-test with extremely small sample sizes

          Researchers occasionally have to work with an extremely small sample size, defined herein as N ≤ 5. Some methodologists have cautioned against using the t-test when the sample size is extremely small, whereas others have suggested that using the t-test is feasible in such a case. The present simulation study estimated the Type I error rate and statistical power of the one- and two-sample t-tests for normally distributed populations and for various distortions such as unequal sample sizes, unequal variances, the combination of unequal sample sizes and unequal variances, and a lognormal population distribution. Ns per group were varied between 2 and 5. Results show that the t-test provides Type I error rates close to the 5% nominal value in most of the cases, and that acceptable power (i.e., 80%) is reached only if the effect size is very large. ... Compared to the regular t-test, the Welch test tends to reduce statistical power and the t-testR yields false positive rates that deviate from 5%. This study further shows that a paired t-test is feasible with extremely small Ns if the within-pair correlation is high. It is concluded that there are no principal.objections to using a t-test with Ns as small as 2. A final cautionary note is made on the credibility of research findings when sample sizes are small. Accessed 123,336 times on https://pareonline.net from August 06, 2013 to December 31, 2019. For downloads from January 1, 2020 forward, please click on the PlumX Metrics link to the right.
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            Digital twin driven prognostics and health management for complex equipment

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              Visualizing data using t-SNE

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                SPE Drilling & Completion
                Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
                1064-6671
                1930-0204
                January 6 2023
                June 14 2023
                January 6 2023
                June 14 2023
                : 38
                : 02
                : 201-219
                Article
                10.2118/208795-PA
                d71f6043-cd44-4e92-9fcd-84f059f3c02e
                © 2023
                History

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