Decreasing human body temperature in the United States since the industrial revolution

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Abstract

In the US, the normal, oral temperature of adults is, on average, lower than the canonical 37°C established in the 19 ^th century. We postulated that body temperature has decreased over time. Using measurements from three cohorts--the Union Army Veterans of the Civil War (N = 23,710; measurement years 1860–1940), the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I (N = 15,301; 1971–1975), and the Stanford Translational Research Integrated Database Environment (N = 150,280; 2007–2017)--we determined that mean body temperature in men and women, after adjusting for age, height, weight and, in some models date and time of day, has decreased monotonically by 0.03°C per birth decade. A similar decline within the Union Army cohort as between cohorts, makes measurement error an unlikely explanation. This substantive and continuing shift in body temperature—a marker for metabolic rate—provides a framework for understanding changes in human health and longevity over 157 years.

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Most cited references 23

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Comparison of predictive equations for resting metabolic rate in healthy nonobese and obese adults: a systematic review.

David Frankenfield, Lori Roth-Yousey, Charlene Compher (2005)

An assessment of energy needs is a necessary component in the development and evaluation of a nutrition care plan. The metabolic rate can be measured or estimated by equations, but estimation is by far the more common method. However, predictive equations might generate errors large enough to impact outcome. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature was undertaken to document the accuracy of predictive equations preliminary to deciding on the imperative to measure metabolic rate. As part of a larger project to determine the role of indirect calorimetry in clinical practice, an evidence team identified published articles that examined the validity of various predictive equations for resting metabolic rate (RMR) in nonobese and obese people and also in individuals of various ethnic and age groups. Articles were accepted based on defined criteria and abstracted using evidence analysis tools developed by the American Dietetic Association. Because these equations are applied by dietetics practitioners to individuals, a key inclusion criterion was research reports of individual data. The evidence was systematically evaluated, and a conclusion statement and grade were developed. Four prediction equations were identified as the most commonly used in clinical practice (Harris-Benedict, Mifflin-St Jeor, Owen, and World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization/United Nations University [WHO/FAO/UNU]). Of these equations, the Mifflin-St Jeor equation was the most reliable, predicting RMR within 10% of measured in more nonobese and obese individuals than any other equation, and it also had the narrowest error range. No validation work concentrating on individual errors was found for the WHO/FAO/UNU equation. Older adults and US-residing ethnic minorities were underrepresented both in the development of predictive equations and in validation studies. The Mifflin-St Jeor equation is more likely than the other equations tested to estimate RMR to within 10% of that measured, but noteworthy errors and limitations exist when it is applied to individuals and possibly when it is generalized to certain age and ethnic groups. RMR estimation errors would be eliminated by valid measurement of RMR with indirect calorimetry, using an evidence-based protocol to minimize measurement error. The Expert Panel advises clinical judgment regarding when to accept estimated RMR using predictive equations in any given individual. Indirect calorimetry may be an important tool when, in the judgment of the clinician, the predictive methods fail an individual in a clinically relevant way. For members of groups that are greatly underrepresented by existing validation studies of predictive equations, a high level of suspicion regarding the accuracy of the equations is warranted.

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Normal oral, rectal, tympanic and axillary body temperature in adult men and women: a systematic literature review.

Märtha Sund-Levander, Christina Forsberg, Lis Karin Wahren (2002)

Normal oral, rectal, tympanic and axillary body temperature in adult men and women: a systematic literature review The purpose of this study was to investigate normal body temperature in adult men and women. A systematic review of data was performed. Searches were carried out in MEDLINE, CINAHL, and manually from identified articles reference lists. Studies from 1935 to 1999 were included. Articles were classified as (1) strong, (2) fairly strong and (3) weak evidence. When summarizing studies with strong or fairly strong evidence the range for oral temperature was 33.2-38.2 degrees C, rectal: 34.4-37.8 degrees C, tympanic: 35.4- 37.8 degrees C and axillary: 35.5-37.0 degrees C. The range in oral temperature for men and women, respectively, was 35.7-37.7 and 33.2-38.1 degrees C, in rectal 36.7-37.5 and 36.8-37.1 degrees C, and in tympanic 35.5-37.5 and 35.7-37.5 degrees C. The ranges of normal body temperature need to be adjusted, especially for the lower values. When assessing body temperature it is important to take place of measurement and gender into consideration. Studies with random samples are needed to confirm the range of normal body temperature with respect to gender and age.

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Prediction of resting energy expenditure from fat-free mass and fat mass.

K M Nelson, R Weinsier, C L Long … (1992)

On the basis of literature values, the relationship between fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass (FM), and resting energy expenditure [REE (kJ/24 h)] was determined for 213 adults (86 males, 127 females). The objectives were to develop a mathematical model to predict REE based on body composition and to evaluate the contribution of FFM and FM to REE. The following regression equations were derived: 1) REE = 1265 + (93.3 x FFM) (r2 = 0.727, P < 0.001); 2) REE = 1114 + (90.4 x FFM) + (13.2 x FM) (R2 = 0.743, P < 0.001); and 3) REE = (108 x FFM) + (16.9 x FM) (R2 = 0.986, P < 0.001). FM explained only a small part of the variation remaining after FFM was accounted for. The models that include both FFM and FM are useful in examination of the changes in REE that occur with a change in both the FFM and FM. To account for more of the variability in REE, FFM will have to be divided into organ mass and skeletal muscle mass in future analyses.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Julie Parsonnet:

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7342-5366

Mark Jit: Role: Reviewing Editor

Eduardo Franco: Role: Senior Editor

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): eLife

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Elife

Journal ID (publisher-id): eLife

Title: eLife

Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd

ISSN (Electronic): 2050-084X

Publication date (Electronic, pub): 07 January 2020

Publication date Collection: 2020

Volume: 9

Electronic Location Identifier: e49555

Affiliations

[1 ]deptDivision of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine Stanford University, School of Medicine StanfordUnited States

[2 ]deptDivision of Cardiovascular Medicine Stanford University, School of Medicine StanfordUnited States

[3 ]deptDepartment of Statistics Stanford University StanfordUnited States

[4 ]deptDepartment of Biomedical Data Science Stanford University, School of Medicine StanfordUnited States

[5 ]deptDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Health Research and Policy Stanford University, School of Medicine StanfordUnited States

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England United Kingdom

McGill University Canada

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England United Kingdom

The Scripps Research Institute United States

Author information

Myroslava Protsiv http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7787-5898

Catherine Ley https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8424-7873

Joanna Lankester http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0709-6722

Julie Parsonnet https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7342-5366

Article

Publisher ID: 49555

DOI: 10.7554/eLife.49555

PMC ID: 6946399

PubMed ID: 31908267

SO-VID: dc58a5ec-d27d-4731-a90d-b2349dbeb86c

License:

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

History

Date received : 21 June 2019

Date accepted : 01 December 2019

Funding

Funded by: Stanford Center for Clinical and Translational Research and Education;

Award ID: SPECTRUM award

Award Recipient : Julie Parsonnet

The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.

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Author impact statement Since the Industrial Revolution, normal body temperature in both men and women has decreased monotonically by 0.03°C per birth decade.

ScienceOpen disciplines: Life sciences

Keywords: human body temperature,resting metabolic rate,historical trends,cohort studies,human

Data availability:

ScienceOpen disciplines: Life sciences

Keywords: human body temperature, resting metabolic rate, historical trends, cohort studies, human

Decreasing human body temperature in the United States since the industrial revolution

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Most cited references 23

Comparison of predictive equations for resting metabolic rate in healthy nonobese and obese adults: a systematic review.

Normal oral, rectal, tympanic and axillary body temperature in adult men and women: a systematic literature review.

Prediction of resting energy expenditure from fat-free mass and fat mass.

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