To evaluate the long-term prognostic value of the combination of the EORTC risk calculator and proapoptotic, antiapoptotic, proliferation, and invasiveness molecular markers in predicting the outcome of intermediate- and high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) treated with intravesical Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) therapy.
This study included 42 patients accrued prospectively presenting with intermediate- to high-risk NMIBC (high-grade T1 tumors or multiple rapidly recurrent tumors refractory to intravesical chemotherapy) treated with transurethral resection (TUR) and BCG. TUR samples were analyzed for the molecular markers p53, p21 waf1/cip, Bcl-2, CyclinD1, and metallothionein 9 (MMP9) using immunohistochemistry. Frequency of positivity, measured as a percentage, was assessed alone or in combination with EORTC risk calculator, for interaction with outcome in terms of recurrence and progression using univariate analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival curves.
Median follow-up was 88 months (mean, 99; range, 14-212 months). The overall recurrence rate was 61.9% and progression rate was 21.4%. In univariate analysis, CyclinD1 and EORTC risk groups were significantly associated with recurrence ( P value 0.03 and 0.02, respectively), although none of the markers showed a correlation to progression. In combining EORTC risk groups to markers expression status, high-risk group associated with positive MMP9, Bcl-2, CyclinD1, or p21 was significantly correlated to tumor recurrence (log rank P values <0.001, 0.03, 0.02, and 0.006, respectively) and when associated with positive MMP9 or p21, it was significantly correlated to progression (log rank P values 0.01 and 0.04, respectively).