The ecology of plant extinction: rates, traits and island comparisons

Abstract

Although there is increasing evidence for a sixth mass extinction, relatively few plants have been officially declared extinct (<150 are categorized as Extinct on the IUCN Red List). The Red List, although the data are neither perfect nor comprehensive, is perhaps the most reliable indicator of extinction and extinction threat. Here, data collated from the Red List, of Extinct plant species and of Critically Endangered plant species with populations in decline, are examined to address three questions: (1) How do background, continental, and island plant extinction rates compare? (2) Are biological and physical island parameters associated with plant extinction? (3) Are any plant traits associated with extinction and if so do these differ between islands and continents? The background rate for plant extinction is estimated to be 0.05–0.13 E/MSY (extinctions per million species-years) and the Red List data are above these background rates and also above a higher extinction rate of 0.15 E/MSY. The data indicate that plant extinctions are dominated by insular species. The Red List extinction data are associated with lower competitive ability and lower climate change velocities, and anthropogenic factors. Analyses using only Critically Endangered species whose populations are in decline (arguably the species most at risk of extinction in the near future) largely mirrors this pattern and suggests that drivers of plant extinction may have an inertia that could last well into the future.