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      Scoring Model to Predict Functional Outcome in Poor-Grade Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

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          Abstract

          Background: Patients with poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), defined as World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grades IV–V have high rates of disability and mortality. The objective of this study was to accurately prognosticate the outcomes of patients with poor-grade aSAH by developing a new scoring model.

          Methods: A total of 147 poor-grade aSAH patients in our center were enrolled. Risk variables identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to devise a scoring model (total score, 0–9 points). The scores were estimated on the basis of β coefficients. A cohort of 68 patients from another institute was used to validate the model.

          Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that modified Fisher grade >2 [odds ratio [OR], 2.972; P = 0.034], age ≥65 years (OR, 3.534; P = 0.006), conservative treatment (OR, 5.078; P = 0.019), WFNS grade V (OR, 2.638; P = 0.029), delayed cerebral ischemia (OR, 3.170; P = 0.016), shunt-dependent hydrocephalus (OR, 3.202; P = 0.032), and cerebral herniation (OR, 7.337; P < 0.001) were significant predictors for poor prognosis [modified Rankin Scale [mRS] ≥3]. A scoring system was constructed by the integration of these factors and divided the poor-grade aSAH patients into three categories: low risk (0–1 points), intermediate risk (2–3 points), and high risk (4–9 points), with predicted risks of poor prognosis of 11, 52, and 87%, respectively ( P < 0.001). The area under the curve in the derivation cohort was 0.844 (95% CI, 0.778–0.909). The AUC in the validation cohort was 0.831 (95% CI, 0.732–0.929).

          Conclusions: The new scoring model can improve prognostication and help decision-making for subsequent complementary treatment in patients with aSAH.

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          Most cited references40

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          Unruptured intracranial aneurysms: natural history, clinical outcome, and risks of surgical and endovascular treatment.

          The management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms is controversial. Investigators from the International Study of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms aimed to assess the natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms and to measure the risk associated with their repair. Centres in the USA, Canada, and Europe enrolled patients for prospective assessment of unruptured aneurysms. Investigators recorded the natural history in patients who did not have surgery, and assessed morbidity and mortality associated with repair of unruptured aneurysms by either open surgery or endovascular procedures. 4060 patients were assessed-1692 did not have aneurysmal repair, 1917 had open surgery, and 451 had endovascular procedures. 5-year cumulative rupture rates for patients who did not have a history of subarachnoid haemorrhage with aneurysms located in internal carotid artery, anterior communicating or anterior cerebral artery, or middle cerebral artery were 0%, 2. 6%, 14 5%, and 40% for aneurysms less than 7 mm, 7-12 mm, 13-24 mm, and 25 mm or greater, respectively, compared with rates of 2 5%, 14 5%, 18 4%, and 50%, respectively, for the same size categories involving posterior circulation and posterior communicating artery aneurysms. These rates were often equalled or exceeded by the risks associated with surgical or endovascular repair of comparable lesions. Patients' age was a strong predictor of surgical outcome, and the size and location of an aneurysm predict both surgical and endovascular outcomes. Many factors are involved in management of patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms. Site, size, and group specific risks of the natural history should be compared with site, size, and age-specific risks of repair for each patient.
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            International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial (ISAT) of neurosurgical clipping versus endovascular coiling in 2143 patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms: a randomised trial.

            Endovascular detachable coil treatment is being increasingly used as an alternative to craniotomy and clipping for some ruptured intracranial aneurysms, although the relative benefits of these two approaches have yet to be established. We undertook a randomised, multicentre trial to compare the safety and efficacy of endovascular coiling with standard neurosurgical clipping for such aneurysms judged to be suitable for both treatments. We enrolled 2143 patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms and randomly assigned them to neurosurgical clipping (n=1070) or endovascular treatment by detachable platinum coils (n=1073). Clinical outcomes were assessed at 2 months and at 1 year with interim ascertainment of rebleeds and death. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with a modified Rankin scale score of 3-6 (dependency or death) at 1 year. Trial recruitment was stopped by the steering committee after a planned interim analysis. Analysis was per protocol. 190 of 801 (23.7%) patients allocated endovascular treatment were dependent or dead at 1 year compared with 243 of 793 (30.6%) allocated neurosurgical treatment (p=0.0019). The relative and absolute risk reductions in dependency or death after allocation to an endovascular versus neurosurgical treatment were 22.6% (95% CI 8.9-34.2) and 6.9% (2.5-11.3), respectively. The risk of rebleeding from the ruptured aneurysm after 1 year was two per 1276 and zero per 1081 patient-years for patients allocated endovascular and neurosurgical treatment, respectively. In patients with a ruptured intracranial aneurysm, for which endovascular coiling and neurosurgical clipping are therapeutic options, the outcome in terms of survival free of disability at 1 year is significantly better with endovascular coiling. The data available to date suggest that the long-term risks of further bleeding from the treated aneurysm are low with either therapy, although somewhat more frequent with endovascular coiling.
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              European Stroke Organization Guidelines for the Management of Intracranial Aneurysms and Subarachnoid Haemorrhage

              Background: Intracranial aneurysm with and without subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is a relevant health problem: The overall incidence is about 9 per 100,000 with a wide range, in some countries up to 20 per 100,000. Mortality rate with conservative treatment within the first months is 50–60%. About one third of patients left with an untreated aneurysm will die from recurrent bleeding within 6 months after recovering from the first bleeding. The prognosis is further influenced by vasospasm, hydrocephalus, delayed ischaemic deficit and other complications. The aim of these guidelines is to provide comprehensive recommendations on the management of SAH with and without aneurysm as well as on unruptured intracranial aneurysm. Methods: We performed an extensive literature search from 1960 to 2011 using Medline and Embase. Members of the writing group met in person and by teleconferences to discuss recommendations. Search results were graded according to the criteria of the European Federation of Neurological Societies. Members of the Guidelines Committee of the European Stroke Organization reviewed the guidelines. Results: These guidelines provide evidence-based information on epidemiology, risk factors and prognosis of SAH and recommendations on diagnostic and therapeutic methods of both ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms. Several risk factors of aneurysm growth and rupture have been identified. We provide recommendations on diagnostic work up, monitoring and general management (blood pressure, blood glucose, temperature, thromboprophylaxis, antiepileptic treatment, use of steroids). Specific therapeutic interventions consider timing of procedures, clipping and coiling. Complications such as hydrocephalus, vasospasm and delayed ischaemic deficit were covered. We also thought to add recommendations on SAH without aneurysm and on unruptured aneurysms. Conclusion: Ruptured intracranial aneurysm with a high rate of subsequent complications is a serious disease needing prompt treatment in centres having high quality of experience of treatment for these patients. These guidelines provide practical, evidence-based advice for the management of patients with intracranial aneurysm with or without rupture. Applying these measures can improve the prognosis of SAH.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Neurol
                Front Neurol
                Front. Neurol.
                Frontiers in Neurology
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                1664-2295
                18 February 2021
                2021
                : 12
                : 601996
                Affiliations
                [1] 1Department of Neurosurgery, College of Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University , Hangzhou, China
                [2] 2Department of Neurosurgery, Quzhou People's Hospital , Quzhou, China
                Author notes

                Edited by: Andrew Bivard, The University of Melbourne, Australia

                Reviewed by: Marialuisa Zedde, Local Health Authority of Reggio Emilia, Italy; R. Loch Macdonald, University of Toronto, Canada

                *Correspondence: Renya Zhan 1196057@ 123456zju.edu.cn

                This article was submitted to Stroke, a section of the journal Frontiers in Neurology

                †These authors have contributed equally to this work

                Article
                10.3389/fneur.2021.601996
                7930831
                33679575
                e912b5dd-0a18-41d3-8edf-699242fa8750
                Copyright © 2021 Shen, Yu, Huang, Mungur, Huang, Pan, Yu, Xie, Zhou, Liu, Cheng, Pan and Zhan.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 02 September 2020
                : 20 January 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 4, Equations: 0, References: 41, Pages: 10, Words: 6396
                Categories
                Neurology
                Original Research

                Neurology
                scoring system,prognosis,poor-grade,aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage,model
                Neurology
                scoring system, prognosis, poor-grade, aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, model

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