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Trend forecasting of main groups of causes-of-death in Iran using the Lee-Carter model

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      Abstract

      Background: Authoritative information and description of the causes of mortality trends is one of the most basic principles of evaluation of the health sector in all countries. Therefore, this study aims to predict the trend in main groups of causes of death in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

      Methods: The study population comprised all deaths recorded in the system of registration and classification of causes of death of Ministry of Health and Medical Education during the years 2006 to 2015. The information was collected via death certificate, burial permit, and information forms. In order to forecast the trends of causes-of-death, Lee Carter model was employed in a demographic package 18.1 of R software version 3.3.1.

      Results: Based on the results, the crude death rate in the total population has reduced from 435.86 in 2006 to 405.01 per 100000 population in 2035. It is anticipated that endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases with the rate of 197.71 per 100000 population will be responsible for the highest causes of death in the year 2035 and from 2021 onwards, the mental and behavioral disorders will be responsible for the lowest rate of mortality.

      Conclusion: Non-communicable diseases have a major role in the deaths of Iranian population; therefore, to reduce the impact of non-communicable diseases on individuals and society, a holistic approach is needed which requires all sectors to cooperate.

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      Most cited references 9

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      The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications

       Ronald Lee (2000)
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        Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions

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          Cancer Mortality Projections in Korea up to 2032

           Mia Son,  Jae-Won Yun (2016)
          Predicting cancer mortality is important to estimate the needs of cancer-related services and to prevent cancer. Despite its significance, a long-term future projection of cancer mortality has not been conducted; therefore, our objective was to estimate future cancer mortality in Korea by cancer site through 2032. The specially designed Nordpred software was used to estimate cancer mortality. The cancer death data from 1983 to 2012 and the population projection data from 1983 to 2032 were obtained from the Korean National Statistics Office. Based on our analysis, age-standardized rates with the world standard population of all cancer deaths were estimated to decline from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (men: -39.8%, women: -33.1%). However, the crude rates are predicted to rise (men: 29.8%, women: 24.4%), and the overall number of the cancer deaths is also estimated to increase (men: 35.5%, women: 32.3%). Several cancer deaths are projected to increase (lung, liver and gallbladder, colon and rectum, pancreas and leukemia in both sexes; prostate cancer in men; and breast and ovarian cancer in women), whereas other cancer deaths are expected to decrease (stomach, esophagus and larynx in both sexes and cervical cancer in women). The largest contribution to increasing cancer deaths is due to the aging of the Korean population. In conclusion, a strategy for primary prevention, early detection, and early treatment to cope with the rapidly increasing death of cancer due to population aging is urgently required.
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            Author and article information

            Affiliations
            1 Department of Health in Disasters and Emergency, School of Health, Safety, Environment (HSE), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
            2 Deputy of Health, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
            Author notes
            Corresponding author: Dr Saeide Aghamohamadi, Aghamohamadi@ 123456health.gov.ir
            Journal
            Med J Islam Repub Iran
            Med J Islam Repub Iran
            MJIRI
            Med J Islam Repub Iran
            Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran
            Iran University of Medical Sciences
            1016-1430
            2251-6840
            2018
            12 December 2018
            : 32
            : 124
            6387797
            10.14196/mjiri.32.124
            © 2018 Iran University of Medical Sciences

            This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial 3.0 License (CC BY-NC 3.0), which allows users to read, copy, distribute and make derivative works for non-commercial purposes from the material, as long as the author of the original work is cited properly.

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            Tables: 3, References: 21, Pages: 5
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            Original Article

            lee carter, iran, causes of death, prediction

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