Trend forecasting of main groups of causes-of-death in Iran using the Lee-Carter model

Abstract

Background: Authoritative information and description of the causes of mortality trends is one of the most basic principles of evaluation of the health sector in all countries. Therefore, this study aims to predict the trend in main groups of causes of death in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Methods: The study population comprised all deaths recorded in the system of registration and classification of causes of death of Ministry of Health and Medical Education during the years 2006 to 2015. The information was collected via death certificate, burial permit, and information forms. In order to forecast the trends of causes-of-death, Lee Carter model was employed in a demographic package 18.1 of R software version 3.3.1.

Results: Based on the results, the crude death rate in the total population has reduced from 435.86 in 2006 to 405.01 per 100000 population in 2035. It is anticipated that endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases with the rate of 197.71 per 100000 population will be responsible for the highest causes of death in the year 2035 and from 2021 onwards, the mental and behavioral disorders will be responsible for the lowest rate of mortality.

Conclusion: Non-communicable diseases have a major role in the deaths of Iranian population; therefore, to reduce the impact of non-communicable diseases on individuals and society, a holistic approach is needed which requires all sectors to cooperate.