The threshold effects of meteorological factors on Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China, 2011

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Abstract

We explored the threshold effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in mainland China to improve the prevention and early warning. Using HFMD surveillance and meteorological data in 2011, we identified the threshold effects of predictors on the monthly incidence of HFMD and predicted the high risk months, with classification and regression tree models (CART). The results of the classification tree showed that there was an 82.35% chance for a high risk of HFMD when the temperature was greater than 24.03 °C and the relative humidity was less than 60.9% during non-autumn seasons. According to the heatmap of high risk prediction, the HFMD incidence in most provinces was beyond the normal level during May to August. The results of regression tree showed that when the temperature was greater than 24.85 °C and the relative humidity was between 80.59% and 82.55%, the relative risk (RR) of HFMD was 3.49 relative to monthly average incidence. This study provided quantitative evidence for the threshold effects of meteorological factors on HFMD in China. The conditions of a temperature greater than 24.85 °C and a relative humidity between 80.59% and 82.55% would lead to a higher risk of HFMD.

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Effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children: a time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China

Yong Huang, Te Deng, Shicheng Yu … (2013)

Background Over the last decade, major outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported in Asian countries, resulting in thousands of deaths among children. However, less is known regarding the effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of HFMD in children. This study aims at quantifying the relationship between meteorological variables and the incidence of HFMD among children in Guangzhou, China. Methods The association between weekly HFMD cases in children aged <15 years and meteorological variables in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed using the generalized additive model (GAM) and time-series method, after controlling for long-term trend and seasonality, holiday effects, influenza period and delayed effects. Results Temperature and relative humidity with one week lag were significantly associated with HFMD infection among children. We found that a 1°C increase in temperature led to an increase of 1.86% (95% CI: 0.92, 2.81%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0–14 years age group. A one percent increase in relative humidity may lead to an increase of 1.42% (95% CI: 0.97, 1.87%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0–14 years age group. Conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that the incidence of HFMD in children was associated with high average temperature and high relative humidity. The one-week delay in the effects of temperature and relative humidity on HFMD is consistent with the enterovirus incubation period and the potential time lag between onset of children’s sickness and parental awareness and response.

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Spatial-Temporal Clusters and Risk Factors of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the District Level in Guangdong Province, China

Te Deng, Yong Huang, Shicheng Yu … (2013)

Objective Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has posed a great threat to the health of children and become a public health priority in China. This study aims to investigate the epidemiological characteristics, spatial-temporal patterns, and risk factors of HFMD in Guangdong Province, China, and to provide scientific information for public health responses and interventions. Methods HFMD surveillance data from May 2008 to December 2011were provided by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We firstly conducted a descriptive analysis to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of HFMD. Then, Kulldorff scan statistic based on a discrete Poisson model was used to detect spatial-temporal clusters. Finally, a spatial paneled model was applied to identify the risk factors. Results A total of 641,318 HFMD cases were reported in Guangdong Province during the study period (total population incidence: 17.51 per 10,000). Male incidence was higher than female incidence for all age groups, and approximately 90% of the cases were children years old. Spatial-temporal cluster analysis detected four most likely clusters and several secondary clusters (P<0.001) with the maximum cluster size 50% and 20% respectively during 2008–2011. Monthly average temperature, relative humidity, the proportion of population years, male-to-female ratio, and total sunshine were demonstrated to be the risk factors for HFMD. Conclusion Children years old, especially boys, were more susceptible to HFMD and we should take care of their vulnerability. Provincial capital city Guangzhou and the Pearl River Delta regions had always been the spatial-temporal clusters and future public health planning and resource allocation should be focused on these areas. Furthermore, our findings showed a strong association between HFMD and meteorological factors, which may assist in predicting HFMD incidence.

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Temperature-sensitive mutants of enterovirus 71 show attenuation in cynomolgus monkeys.

Minetaro Arita, Hiroyuki Shimizu, Noriyo Nagata … (2005)

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is one of the major causative agents of hand, foot and mouth disease and is sometimes associated with serious neurological disorders. In this study, an attempt was made to identify molecular determinants of EV71 attenuation of neurovirulence in a monkey infection model. An infectious cDNA clone of the virulent strain of EV71 prototype BrCr was constructed; temperature-sensitive (ts) mutations of an attenuated strain of EV71 or of poliovirus (PV) Sabin vaccine strains were then introduced into the infectious clone. In vitro and in vivo phenotypes of the parental and mutant viruses were analysed in cultured cells and in cynomolgus monkeys, respectively. Mutations in 3D polymerase (3D(pol)) and in the 3' non-translated region (NTR), corresponding to ts determinants of Sabin 1, conferred distinct temperature sensitivity to EV71. An EV71 mutant [EV71(S1-3')] carrying mutations in the 5' NTR, 3D(pol) and in the 3' NTR showed attenuated neurovirulence, resulting in limited spread of virus in the central nervous system of monkeys. These results indicate that EV71 and PV1 share common genetic determinants of neurovirulence in monkeys, despite the distinct properties in their original pathogenesis.

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Journal ID (nlm-ta): Sci Rep

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Sci Rep

Title: Scientific Reports

Publisher: Nature Publishing Group

ISSN (Electronic): 2045-2322

Publication date (Electronic): 16 November 2016

Publication date Collection: 2016

Volume: 6

Electronic Location Identifier: 36351

Affiliations

[1 ]Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology & Health Information Research Center & Guangdong Key Laboratory of Medicine, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University , Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong Province, China

[2 ]Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Beijing 102206, China

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[a ] zhdingm@ 123456mail.sysu.edu.cn

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Publisher Item ID: srep36351

DOI: 10.1038/srep36351

PMC ID: 5111081

PubMed ID: 27848955

SO-VID: 7b8d62fb-ef1d-415e-9d7f-e992bea28009

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The threshold effects of meteorological factors on Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China, 2011

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Most cited references 11

Effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children: a time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China

Spatial-Temporal Clusters and Risk Factors of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the District Level in Guangdong Province, China

Temperature-sensitive mutants of enterovirus 71 show attenuation in cynomolgus monkeys.

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