Climate change will disproportionally affect the most genetically diverse lineages of a widespread African tree species

Abstract

Global climate change is proceeding at an alarming rate with major ecological and genetic consequences for biodiversity, particularly in drylands. The response of species to climate change may differ between intraspecific genetic groups, with major implications for conservation. We used molecular data from 10 nuclear and two chloroplast genomes to identify phylogeographic groups within 746 individuals from 29 populations of Senegalia senegal, a savannah tree species in sub-Saharan Africa. Three phylogroups are identified corresponding to Sudano-Sahelian, Zambezian and Southern African biogeographic regions in West, East and Southern Africa. Genetic diversity was highest in Southern and Zambesian and lowest in the Sudano-Sahelian phylogroups. Using species distribution modeling, we infer highly divergent future distributions of the phylogroups under three climate change scenarios. Climate change will lead to severe reductions of distribution area of the genetically diverse Zambezian (− 41–− 54%) and Southern (− 63–− 82%) phylogroups, but to an increase for the genetically depauperate Sudano-Sahelian (+ 7– + 26%) phylogroups. This study improves our understanding of the impact of climate change on the future distribution of this species. This knowledge is particularly useful for biodiversity management as the conservation of genetic resources needs to be considered in complementary strategies of in-situ conservation and assisted migration.